You Will Never Look at the NFL Draft the Same

Bro I just subscribed. You honestly one of the best content creators I have seen. I dont even watch football and I still watched the video from start to finish.

There's a reason why teams like New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Baltimore are so sustainably successful. Consistently ensuring compensatory picks and always making sure to sacrifice some of their draft haul for the future draft haul pays huge dividends.

10:52 a big reason why late first round picks are better value than early first round picks is because the late rounders are going to good teams. Easier to perform well on a good team with better coaches, teammates, front office, culture, etc

The fact that the video was made 4 months ago and now you look at this in hindsight.. it's just absolutely hysterical comical what the Panthers have done 😂 because look at them now... just wow

That Panthers trade for Bryce Young is looking disastrous for them right now. DJ Moore is a Pro Bowl receiver and they gave the Bears the #1 pick in the upcoming 2024 draft. Chicago can easily repeat the process by trading down and reaping another bounty of draft picks in return. Who knows? Maybe that team will be a complete mess and gift the Bears the #1 pick in the 2025 draft because they had their hearts set on getting one specific player.

One thing I noticed, following the Seattle Seahawks the last decade, our front office really understands that first rounders are overvalued. With a few exceptions, we've always traded down the draft to secure more plentiful and cheaper rookies. Yes, we may miss out of the all star signings most years, but often times were able to find a few good players that fell down the draft that over preformed their round pick.

This actually made me understand the Herschel Walker trade more. Jimmy Johnson didnt have a 4 year window, he had a 10 year contract. He was invested in the long term success of the Cowboys (even tho it didn't end up yhst way). When he left they won their second Super Bowl with the youngest team in the league.

Interesting piece. I think one critical aspect that is missed is that each team not only has a finite amount of money to spend, but also a finite number of players to spend it on (53 man roster). Even if the $ value proposition of a late first round pick may be higher, the value added to the team based on them only taking a single roster spot may balance out that equation.

Data Analytics graduate here who also makes some videos (unrelated to analytics). 1. Dude this video is fire. The editing, graphics, audio quality, and script are all top notch. Also, your fit, and the books in the background pair for a very professional looking output. 2. The relative value of descending picks match up incredibly closely to your estimate. Almost never in statistics do you see this accurately measurable of an association. Good stuff.

To be fair, Wentz was a key contributor to the Eagles in their Super Bowl year. It's resulting a bit, but... you can't argue with a Super Bowl

I also think that the quarterback trades and the higher value of top picks is a bit skewed because of how much QBs are over drafted. They are picked so high because if you hit on a qb your franchise can be set for years. AR wasn’t the 4th best in the class, Tre Lance wasn’t 3rd and even Mac Jones wasn’t close to 15th. This hurts the value at the top pics because guys who should be late second rounders get drafted insanely high

Carson Wentz trade up was a success, especially comparing it to Jared Goff, Eagles won a SB partly due to his performance in 2017 and he was a good QB until 2020 to then he got traded for a haul that played a massive role into getting back to the SB. So definitely not the failure it’s portrayed here

One thing to note about trading down is that since you only have so much playing time available, acquiring 1 superstar player can help your team more than 2 really good players at a given position. It’s easier to find superstars when you’re pool of players is every player instead of every player minus whatever number are already taken. Often times bad teams are bad because their personnel department is bad and will often misuse top picks

As a Bears fan, I think this was just the universe throwing us a bone for once in a long while. Lovie Smith never gave up on the Bears. Also, loved the video, it was very well scripted.

The lower value of early 1st rounders is directly linked to the teams picking high in the draft having huge needs. They are usually forced into taking a QB, Edge, or OT that high because it’s the biggest need and they tend to draft the best at that position but that player may not be the best player overall. That’s why you see teams picking later in round one get a more valuable pick because they can draft BPA with a lower salary slot. Goff and Wentz weren’t the best players available that year it was Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, and Ezekiel Elliott were better prospects but the rams and eagles traded up because need outweighed talent and they couldn’t wait in their eyes. The 2016 draft was one especially packed with high value players after the first round so they missed on even more premium talent than usual. Chris Jones, Kenny Clark, King Henry, Mike Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Dak Prescot, Matt Judon and many others.

I think positional value plays a factor here. Hitting on an elite QB is franchise changing.

Late first round picks are tremendous value especially when you’re an organizationally strong team going after players FROM strong organizations. I think of Tre White going from LSU to Buffalo or Donta Hightower going from Alabama to New England.

Don't forget that one of the biggest reasons the Cowboys trading Herschel Walker was such highway robbery was that the players they also got, they weren't actually wanting, they wanted to potential draft picks they could get for them. Jesse Solomon got them a 1st round pick in 1991, David Howard got them Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1991, Issiac Holt got them the 1992 1st round pick, trading Darrin Nelson got them the 2nd round in 1992, and Alex Stewart got them the 3rd round in 1992. All these pics were basically "stolen" from Minnesota.

12:28 Average NFL GM tenure being 2.1 years seemed impossibly short, so I ran the numbers. It's 7.4 years Arizona Cardinals: Monti Ossenfort, hired 1/26/23 (0.5 years) Atlanta Falcons: Terry Fontenot, hired 1/19/21 (2.5 years) Baltimore Ravens: Eric DeCosta, hired 1/11/19 (4.6 years) Buffalo Bills: Brandon Beane, hired 5/9/17 (6.2 years) Carolina Panthers: Scott Fitterer, hired 1/14/21 (2.6 years) Chicago Bears: Ryan Poles, hired 1/25/22 (1.5 years) Cincinnati Bengals: Duke Tobin, hired 1/1/02 (21.6 years) Cleveland Browns: Andrew Berry, hired 1/27/20 (3.5 years) Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones, hired 1/25/89 (34.5 years) Denver Broncos: George Paton, hired 1/13/21 (2.6 years) Detroit Lions: Brad Holmes, hired 1/14/21 (2.6 years) Green Bay Packers: Brian Gutekunst, hired 1/8/18 (5.6 years) Houston Texans: Nick Caserio, hired 1/7/21 (2.6 years) Indianapolis Colts: Chris Ballard, hired 1/19/17 (6.5 years) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trent Baalke, hired 1/21/21 (2.5 years) Kansas City Chiefs: Brett Veach, hired 7/10/17 (6.1 years) Las Vegas Raiders: Dave Ziegler, hired 1/30/22 (1.5 years) Los Angeles Chargers: Tom Telesco, hired 1/9/13 (10.6 years) Los Angeles Rams: Les Snead, hired 1/10/12 (11.6 years) Minnesota Vikings: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, hired 1/26/22 (1.5 years) Miami Dolphins: Chris Grier, hired 1/4/16 (7.6 years) New England Patriots: Bill Belichick, hired 1/27/00 (23.5 years) New Orleans Saints: Mickey Loomis, hired 1/1/02 (21.6 years) New York Giants: Joe Schoen, hired 1/21/22 (1.5 years) New York Jets: Joe Douglas, hired 6/7/19 (4.2 years) Pittsburgh Steelers: Omar Khan, hired 5/25/22 (1.2 years) Philadelphia Eagles: Howie Roseman, hired 1/29/10 (13.5 years) San Francisco 49ers: John Lynch, hired 1/29/17 (6.5 years) Seattle Seahawks: John Schneider, hired 1/18/10 (13.6 years) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jason Licht, hired 1/21/14 (9.5 years) Tennessee Titans: Ran Carthon, hired 1/18/23 (0.5 years) Washington Commanders: Martin Mayhew, hired 1/21/21 (2.5 years)

The video production on this video is insane for how small your channel is, it’s so well put together and you delivered perfectly, that it can get someone that rarely watches football be so invested in it :) great job Michael