Who Killed the Chinese Economy? | A Discussion with Adam S. Posen, Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Michael Pettis

If I had to give reason why I stopped watching mainstream news and analysis in video form it would be that it stopped being like this. These are accomplished people having an intelligent conversation without having their most recent book as a background prop, or making an effort to "build their brand" through manufactured disagreement. Thank you!

The most frustrating thing for me studying economics as a hobby is how everyone seems to know what should be done but it almost never gets done because of politics and the need politicians have to keep most people happy in order to be reelected or stay in power at the expense of the medium to long term. That is why politicians LOVE Keynes: "In the future, we are all dead". He should complete the phrase and add: "therefore, leave the bill to our kids". And the Chinese could add: "Which kids ?"

in 2013, Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Holdings began slowly restructuring its holdings in the Mainland. It sold off real estate, retail chains, and other assets, shifting its investments to Europe. This sent shock waves through China’s business community. Wang Shi 王石, president of Vanke (one of China’s largest real estate developers), wrote on Weibo that ‘The very shrewd Mr. Li Ka-shing is selling properties in Beijing and Shanghai. This is a signal.

Zoe Lie asserted a growing incentive mismatch between the Party and the Chinese people. Exploration of this line of inquiry requires at least an hour in a new video devoted top the subject.

It’s still working far better than most other countries.

Pettis and Posen together is a master class. Well moderated, thank you.

one thing to note: money is a nonlinear entity. the mathematics of a nonlinear entity can behave in strange ways. The property held by state entities were not part of the monetary system until they we leased to property developers. To a degree, this could have been done a in sustainable manner. Common sense was that residences should have been built for people that would actually live in them rather the collectible investments. But instead, everybody was greedy and went overboard until it became a game and suspended any reality. This fed on itself until at some point people started to regain their senses. I believe this was the reason the government instituted financial measures. Unfortunately, it was long past the point this would have been effective, and instead it popped the bubble. It did not help that they believed their own hype, became arrogant, and pushed out foreigners who actually added value to their economy.

19:58 "average Chinese household." Most of these are ignoring that China's a 2 or 3 speed economy. There isn't really many people at or around the average. The coasts are far richer than average while the inland areas far poorer.

Could they see the debacle from one child policy? China could produce everything except babies. Those are investments too.

Zoe's Jackson Pollock metaphor was brilliant !

Isn’t it a matter of priorities? Xi isn’t interested in the priorities of the Deng cadre and legacy. In fact he thinks that modernisation, free enterprise, market oriented reforms, have all gone too far. He is about power … consolidating his personal power, consolidating the CCP’s power, projecting China’s international power abroad. So yes the economic woes are Xi’s fault, but they are not a mistake, the economy is just friendly fire. It’s what HE wants. Let’s see how long the people of China will want the same.

I will say I enjoy Liu’s wit. “I think Long COVID was one of the most creative descriptions of the situation” (Translation: “You’re wrong but bless your chutzpah.”). She seems to have a bit less panel experience but I think she really hits her key arguments in a very convincing way.

Not mentioned was the lack of household wealth and therefore confidence lost to down payments invested into incomplete homes - even if you're OK your friend might be hurting badly.

Wow, what a great discussion. I hope to read the article threads soon. Thanks. I'm getting an education.

Superb discussion. The current calculus has not easily measurable factors.

Great Discussion!

This was a really great conversation. I enjoyed the live challenging of ideas.

"Who killed the Chinese Economy", reminds me of the question at the end of the century, "Who killed the Japanese Economy"

This is superb💡📺one of the best, if not THE BEST, in the Foreign Affairs YouTube series 👏

Brilliant discussion! Thank you!