Your Second Round Picks Are Worthless...

I get the parameter, but for example pittman in his second year with 14 FPPG is red. Which might be outside of the 24 players of his position, but by no means a failed season. His value even shot up that year and yet it is red. I think this kind of creates a worse picture than the reality. (This gets underlined by you saying in the end that 95 out of a 117 they were NOTHING for your roster... which is obviously not the case) Also, looking at this chart, it seems like pittman and higgins have the same success as gibson for example. I know, it's based on facts and yet it creates a wrong image imo

I got Achane, Laporta and Rice in the 2nd rd last year so.......

LaPorta was a home run for me last year in the second round.

I feel like anyone expecting a top 24 finish for your second round pick has to high of expectations. When I use my 2nds I hope for flex plays. Top 30-45 finishes. Achane, Jayden Reed, Rice, Josh Downs fit that mold in last years class alone. Still a gamble but so is anyone in fantasy

The problem is your parameters. Expecting elite top 12 talent out of upside 2nd round picks is unrealistic. 20/36 (55.55%) of all of these players hit at least 10PPG in at least one season. If a 2nd round guy can be a solid flex play for a least a season or two with the upside to turn into a Pittman, Higgins, or Aiyuk that's not a wasted pick.

I think the expectation needs to be adjusted across dynasty league managers. If a 2nd round pick becomes a solid flex play, that should be a win. Claypool was a top 24 wr his rookie year for fantasy and was absolutely starting in lineups. Sure he ended up worth nothing, but I'm sure he helped people win games that year.

Why is a guy playing less games more of a difference maker for your team than a guy playing more but averaging 1 pt less? I’d rather have 16 across a whole season than 17 while dealing with missed games and subsequent game time decisions.

Pittman Jr, Aiyuk and Tee all 2nd rounders in a single class how is that lighting picks on fire? I would be ecstatic if my 2nd this year turned into that kind of value. Only way I’m trading 2nds is if I’m a contender.

Is this fot Start 7?

Would love to see this with ppg rather than top 12/24 finishes. For instance, Michael Pittman averaged 14.0 ppg in Year 2 and considered a fail and 13.5 in year 3 but that was a fair hit. I have lower expectations for second round guys so judging them the same way of course is going to look awful.

So what you’re saying is to reach on the second round guys with my first round picks so they can be difference makers. Say less, I got u.

So what should the plan be with seconds, trade for established talent? Trade in packages for firsts?

You should do whether they increase in dynasty value after they are drafted. Red for decrease from ADP, green for increase. I think you will see more green than these charts, and the information will be more useful.

I’m curious to see the data for first round rookie drafts and how much higher the hit rate is

Interesting! Makes me feel good about adding 2.06 + 2.12 to 1.06 to move up to 1.03 in 12 team SF TEP.

I made a deal the other day, sent the 2.03 2.05 and Derius Davis for the 1.10 in a 14 team 1 qb league. I free up roster spots and get the best asset (I’m defending champ) and he gets more assets to help build his team (he just took over this asset starved orphan. He has Lamar and then his second best player according to KTC is Jaylen Warren if that tells you how asset starved his roster is. He has 4 players valued over 2000 on KYC….)

On KTC the 2.01 to 2.12 has a value range of ~ 2775 to 4051. Which equates to about: QB 23-31 RB 14-36 WR 30-57 TE 10-19 So which of these assets should we sell a 2nd round pick for?

yeah, the failed metric really hinders the analysis. right now this is difference makers only, where as, bottom end of the tier guys have a lot of value to capture by sliding back in that tier/flat worp zone. not to say i dont agree, rather i wonder the impact of adding rb3/wr3 to the cateogory is, as its still better than zero

can you do this vid again w w "trade value" as the parameter? would keep injured players in, would also showcase other factors that arent in "output" as what you want is trade value in the off season, not ouput

My second round picks in the last two years in my 1 QB league have been Rachaad White Josh Downs CJ Stroud Laporta My 3rds have been Jayden Reed Puka They have value if you know how to draft rookies walking into open roles on good teams