China's Economy is in Bad Shape
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All Comments (21)
I love this channel so much. Very well explained.
The biggest issue is that the people running the systems that are creating these debacles in the financial market are not being jailed they are allowed to get away with crimes that they committed and they get to keep the money that they embezzled from everyone. When people who are low income need access to funding we can’t get it so we are unable to get out of poverty because of those kinds of things.
It’s heartbreaking seeing what is happening to the people of China with the lockdowns and economic slowdown. My heart goes out to the moms and dads just trying to get enough food and basic necessities for their families.
Love this channel ! The videos are so well produced. Love the music choice and specially the content that always seems to cover multiple points of view. You must spend so much time in research.
Keep up the great work Dagogo!
I enjoy your videos which are immensely educative and engaging.
I'm not always happy afterwards but that's solely due to the horrors I now get to see and realize.
I'm in my early 20s and trying to establish a foothold for both myself & family. I am now constantly worried I might not beat or at least take advantage of the system which I find myself...
All that aside, i’d more than love you to look into Africa, with Nigeri 🇳🇬 as a case study 🤞😅
Pre-sales are a wild concept and I feel horrible for the people who bought into it trusting that their home would be built only to be shafted with nothing.
Fantastic video! It’s the first time to hear someone describes China’s real estate industry as a Ponzi scheme. Normally I hear people said that industry is “over leveraged” in China, but I think you do have a point. It’s just crazy to learn that Chinese home buyers are paying their mortgages months or even years before their homes are delivered to them. What’s government will allow that to happen? But it is also shocking to me that many Chinese friends that I know seem to have full confidence and trust on their government. It is so sad to see innocent people suffer, and it seems always innocent people will suffer, that makes me feel so powerless, and no wonder the youth now choose to lay flat and let it rot.
Everytime an organization, establishment and people in general gets obliterated, the troublemakers gets compensated with a freebie in rewards, offers to the tune of millions.
Love your work, mate! You're compassionate, keen on justice and your sourcing is excellent. 👍👍
Seems to me that the problem consistently, ultimately, is the interconnected systems and networks have massive feedback loops just waiting to kick off everywhere. And they all start small but cycle up to massive issues that kick off other feedback loops, etc. If there are no air gaps between systems and flows or at least firewalls, it doesn't matter where you move your processes, locations, methods, etc to - remodeling the global chain to local just changes the meaning of "global" when considering your dependency chain, ie now the triggering value and location are in another US state, but the feedback loop is still there regardless of you need steel from Pennsylvania or China. You still need it and if those processes need your output to function it's still the same problem.
It's like when I set my fantasy football lineup access I've got a quarterback and receiver from the same team starting; every pass that quarterback makes to that receiver scores me points on both sides of the play so I'm making a killing. But, every time that quarterback targets someone else, I'm back less than average performance than if I just put in a quarterback and receiver that are guaranteed to get action in their respective games and have no link to each other's performance (my receiver drops the ball and I get no points for him or for my quarterback when they're on the same team - their performance is linked and so is their failure.). But, here's the key - I only need to get enough points to beat the lineup I'm up against that week. Those times where the linked performance shines (20% of the time?) only makes my win margin larger. The outcome is the same if I win by 1 or 100 points; I get 1 win for that matchup against the other lineup for the week. That extra risk to win by more screws me more often than I break even at best.
If you can isolate your processes, even if it's at the cost of better margins, the move for robustness is less sexy, but probably more viable across time and it doesn't matter how long you win by more if eventually the trigger to blow up the entire thing is ever present. After enough rolls of the dice you'll hit snake eyes so it's best to not ignore that fact.
Bottom line, feedback loops cascade failure until there's a firewall or airgap.
A simply brilliant production.
One thing more about China's future economy is that it also depends on external forces and not just how it deals with it's internal problems.
I love this channel so much. It’s like; “yeah the world is falling apart around you, but let me describe it in my calming voice with some chill beats in the background and totally chill you out.”
Here in Brazil is just like that, all the big property developers do pre-sales. Between 2007 and 2011, 100% of the sales were from pre-sales, they sold all the apartments in a 7 days of pre-sale, at the end of the 3 years to build the apartments, all the apartments were sold, but afther 2011 pre-sales slowed down. I work in a property developer between 2015 to 2019, they were selling 40% to 50% of the apartments in 6 months of pre-sale before the construction starts, and at the end of the 3 years construction, round 70% were sold, and then it was 2 more yaers the sell the rest of the apartments, so it was round 5 years and 6 months to sell all the apartments.
Here lots of property developers did the some thing as in China, they used the pre-sale money from a project to finance another project, but then the goverment made a law to protect the buyers, the goverment create the "special purpose company". So now, a property developer needs to create a "special purpose company" for every project, every "special purpose company" has its own bank account, so now, the money that goes in a "special purpose company" bank account can't go out to another "special purpose company" bank account.
And here in Brazil, almost all the property developer always get a bank to finance their project, but the bank normaly at most finance 80% of the project cost, so the property developers need 20% to 30% of the project cost to start the construction. Normaly there is 6 months of pre-sale before the construction starts, for them to try get the 20% to 30% of the project cost, so the more money they can get out of the pre-sale, less of their own money needs to go in the project. After they get the bank to finance the project, during construction, every money that comes in, because of the pre-sale, goes to the bank that is financing the project.
I’m seriously thinking about deleting YouTube due to the lack of quality content or rather the overwhelming amount of terrible content that makes it difficult to find the good stuff. Coldfusion is one of the exceptions. Very much appreciate the calm and relaxed delivery of what looks like well researched content.
Just found this channel & he does a really amazing job presenting in a concise fashion & asks some very interesting, intellectual & valid questions regarding afterwards. There needs to be more channels like this!
Very clear narrated information that we need to be aware of bringing to light what is really going on, well done Coldfusion.
Great content. I'd like to see something similar with other countries like Argentina, Venezuela or Bolivia. They share some problems and certain political scenarios. Bolivia has enjoyed like 14 years of growth fueled by its gas exports, but many have predicted its slowdown and the terrible consequences on the country, but most of the population are in denial, they refer to it as only political argument that it never comes to happen. Anyway, its just a wish, have a similar analysis con my country, Bolivia.
I feel really bad for the 20-30 year olds in China who are just trying to get off the ground and stumble into a housing issues, a stale job market, a stuttering economy and massive debt issues. It must be absolutely crushing, knowing you did everything right only to find yourself without any opportunities. I hope it gets better.
One danger you didn't mention is the thing countries often do to solve internal problems: create external ones. Often militarism and nationalism are reactions to the frustration of internal problems and an attempt to generate national unity. This is another reason not to gloat over the fortunes of China.
Great video! Thank you for the final notes you made. I wish for the Chinese citizens to do well for themselves.