Harriet Turner - Solar wind data assimilation in an operational context
3,883
Published 2023-07-11
Abstract:
For accurate and timely space weather forecasting, advanced knowledge of the ambient solar wind is required, both for its direct impact on the magnetosphere and for accurately forecasting the propagation of coronal mass ejections to Earth. Data assimilation (DA) combines model output and observations to form an optimum estimation of reality. Initial experiments with assimilation of in situ solar wind observations suggest the potential for significant improvement in the forecast skill of near-Earth solar wind conditions. However, these experiments have assimilated science-quality observations, rather than near-real-time (NRT) data that would be available to an operational forecast scheme. Here, we assimilate both NRT and science observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and near-Earth observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft. We show that forecasts using NRT data are comparable to those based on science-level data. This suggests that an operational solar wind DA scheme would provide significant forecast improvement, with reduction in the mean absolute error (MAE) of solar wind speed around 45% over forecasts without DA. With a proposed space weather monitor planned for the L5 Lagrange point, we also quantify the solar wind forecast gain expected from L5 observations alongside existing observations from L1. This is achieved using configurations of the STEREO and L1 spacecraft. There is a 15.5% improvement for forecast lead times of less than 5 days when observations from L5 are assimilated alongside those from L1, compared to assimilation of L1 observations alone.
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MIST Online Seminar Series: www.mist.ac.uk/meetings/mist-online-seminars
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Image credit: NASA/SOHO
All Comments (7)
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At video marker 3:00, the red central disk is a mask in the observational satellite's imaging system that covers the suns disk and much of its coronal atmosphere, This protects the imaging elements from the much greater intensity of those regions, and allows the satellite to record the much more delicate and subtle details of activity near the sun. The center-most white circle represents the actual globe of the sun. That's my understanding; other viewers seem to know a lot; I welcome correction if I am in error.
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you got all the pieces, good luck on the future thesis!
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Good work
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Wow … great presentation ….
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I suggested to NASA a satellite system 2 or 3 that would monitor our front area of the system / sun. … here monitoring planetary and asteroidal impacts “types / sizes / materials” with an integrated blockchain distributed AI … here solar flare causality and sunspot as materials burning up on surface and heavy metals falling to core of sun … a real time solar flare awareness / warning system … thoughts
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Hello, your subject interest me but your sound is not clear and your prononciation not well toned, but I’m sure you will improuve. I’m French but every day I listen to YouTube science in English.
