Arctic System Collapse? Devastating new research.

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Published 2022-09-18
The arctic region is a key driver of global climate patterns. In the summer of 2022, three peer reviewed research papers were published, all of which showed the systems that have kept the arctic stable for thousands of years are now collapsing far more quickly than previous analysis and modelling had suggested. A fourth paper, published at the same time, shows us what the consequences are likely to be. This video assesses all four.

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Research links

NASA 2022 Arctic Sea Ice satellite images
www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2022/2022-arctic-summer-…

Barents Sea research paper
www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-13568-5

Arctic warming research paper
www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3

Greenland ice sheet research paper
www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2

Climate Tipping points research paper
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

National Snow and Ice Data Center
nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-se…

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All Comments (21)
  • Al
    The last ever dolphin message was misinterpreted as a surprisingly sophisticated attempt to do a double-backwards-somersault through a hoop whilst whistling the 'Star Spangled Banner', but in fact the message was this: 'So long and thanks for all the fish.'
  • Donald Keating
    I think you explained the answer to the Fermi paradox. It all makes sense. This is probably the easiest possibility for a great filter
  • Alexander Amann
    I've been wondering.... How do you animate the research articles, figures and other graphics??? One of the best-looking science-related channels on YouTube!!!
  • Will M
    Dave if you’re not aware of this already, you’re in for a treat - there is a company in Canada that has reinvented geothermal with a closed-loop system that doesn’t rely on groundwater and existing fractures to operate - it can be deployed virtually anywhere and they now have several sites around the world - this truly looks like a key solution to baseload power globally - https://youtu.be/zZh7irt78to
  • Thank you for reading all these papers and bringing them to life in a video.
  • Tersia du Plessis
    Fantastic content. Had an "interesting" conversation with a climate skeptic on the Free Thought Channel a while back. I hope Pieter Roux watches this.
  • dan leno
    This is one of those "what can you say?" episodes. Well done for the clear and comprehensive explanation, but I wish there were even the faintest hope of anything getting done about it.
  • G kes
    It seems that we generally underestimate the role of the ocean on the climate. Thank you for spreading the word about this role, as it can be hard to wrap your head around sometimes, but is crucial to understanding the climate and why it is changing
  • John hunter
    I enjoyed your presentation, however I feel you should present the lowest and highest temperature predictions not just the highest ie RPC 2.6 and RPC 8.5.
    Considering past predictions have been at or below RPC 2.6.
  • grindupBaker
    I've just now noticed from the uni bremen (deutsch) time series that there's an approximate cycle 3-4 years long of Arctic Ocean sea ice minimum (September) extent on top of the slow downward trend from 2006-2022 that didn't exist 1972-2006 (the period of their time series). So highest minimum extent years within a cycle were 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and lowest minimum extent years within a cycle were 2007, 2012, 2016, 2020 (of which 2007, 2012 were bigger & famous). Not anything like a Sine wave, they can't be overlaid for a really good match but there's something there. So if a cycle exists then 2023 will be lower than 2022, 2024 will be lower than 2023, and 2025 will be higher than 2024 (so 2024 will be lowest in the cycle). As I stated that's a rather cyclic-looking pattern laid ON TOP OF the slow downward trend of minimum sea ice extent. Hey, I almost made a prediction, never hardly done that before (I'm like Guy McPherson's lazy, handsome younger brother who just grunts "beats me" if you ask him "So what d'you think will happen about <anything, the future cost of Pot>").
  • I truly appreciate you gathering this information and presenting us with a detailed overview that saves our time. Having studied climate change since it wasn't so popular (1978), I'm often reminded of the data that we still lack.
    We know that as the sea ice melts, colder water sinks deeper in the ocean. Does that significantly drop the temperature in the deepest parts of the ocean? We don't know; we have no data on that.
    It probably does. Does that colder water keep chilling until it covers such a large area that it starts to mix in ocean currents and could cool our climate? We don't know; we have no data on that.
    It probably does. Is there a greater volume of cold water sinking to the depths when there is less ice insulating the polar oceans? We don't know; we don't have the data.
    There probably is. Does this mean we need to get busy in the oceans collecting this data for future climatologists?
    It probably does!!
  • Lady Stillgar
    Best explanation I’ve heard yet. 👏 thanks 💚🌴🥑🌱🐢🌳🗽
  • shaney
    Another excellent video. Really appreciate the presentation being backed up with links to the source material. The stuff on climate and videos done on new and alternative energy engineering are greatly appreciated by a layperson like myself - gives me a reason to consider that we humans might be able to find solution to our existential problems after all, and maybe realize that we can and need to do a better job of how we conduct ourselves in regard to the planet.
  • Sue Elliott
    I like how this is structured and presented. Easy to understand, for us dummies. Thanks 😊
  • Bill Goedecke
    Thanks for the informative video. I understand from looking at different websites that the threshold percentage of a pixel (I am guessing that would be a square kilometer) covered with ice per pixel is 15% coverage (this standard is done due to its consistency and the information it can provide to ships). That means that a square kilometer of area is considered ice covered if at least 15% is covered in ice. I am guessing that this method would very much overestimate ice cover. I don’t know what the data would look like if the benchmark was at least 50% coverage (I would assume you could set a parameter if one was using a model to do an analysis of satellite imagery). If this is all true then we may not see a blue ocean event until it is upon us.
  • BLUESKY10X
    Very good factual presentation, thank you.
    But just Alexander asked in the comments, let us know please how do you make those excellent annimations. It seems that you hired a highly professional grafics designer. Kindly share with us your secret :-)
  • AlphaIndigo
    Great video as usual, sadly if it does not make money and feed the greed of human expansion across the globe it will also flounder and fail to find the right audience. Thank you for highlighting this most important issue.
  • BOGGIT
    One thing that you can add to this is volcanic actions of late,one of the last one's knocked the earth's axis by nearly 7inchs, may not sound much but it puts the Arctic in the sun for longer 🙃
    Model's are just that Model's a slight miscalculation and it's going to be out by a long way ,just a guess at a worst case cenario
  • Apocalypse Wow!
    I remember reading about 3 of these studies and it is amazing how little attention their findings received even in the articles themselves, now that I know more about the research after watching this.
  • Asher Goney
    The K2 Range extends further east from Everest, directly North From Coastline at 300kms to Kunchenjunga Hills 850kms North at Elevations 3500 to 5000 meters Above sea level, The K2 extends from Everest further west till the Edge of Karakorum Desert intermingled with The Hindukush Ranges west of Himalayan Ranges of Northern India.