MIT Has Predicted that Society Will Collapse in 2040 | Economics Explained

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Published 2021-11-26
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All Comments (21)
  • @elecmahm
    Saying "oh hey society is predicted to collapse in 18 years" and following it up with "the first 1000 fans to sign up with this link get a free month of skillshare!" is some disconnected dystopian ish.
  • @SeanA099
    Hey guys. If we work really hard, we can achieve that goal by 2030
  • @rochecr
    While "The Limits to Growth" did present a scenario in which global societal collapse could occur around 2040, it's essential to understand that this was just one of many potential outcomes modeled in the report. It wasn't a definitive prediction. Moreover, the intent of the study was more to stimulate thought and discussion about sustainable growth than to make precise forecasts.
  • @JVilkas
    Thanks for getting us there, Keynes.
  • @ShortHax
    Maybe electing people who won’t be alive for society’s collapse isn’t such a bright idea
  • "So basically yeah the world is ending. Sponsored by Skillshare!"

    This world has literally become a parody of itself at this point
  • @Jamison-kd2fy
    Here you go have an ad. *Ad shows. What a good little consumer you are.

    Love it! Got my sub
  • de Toqueville was perhaps the first who looked at many examples to determine common factors in collapse and timescales. They were: Diversion of resources held for the common good to self interested leaders/ elites, increasing bureaucracy/complexity, loss of legitimacy of political leadership, and finally a catalysing challenge (climatic, famine, pandemic, immigration, war). 300 years was the longest time before collapse by early-mid 19th century.
  • @oliverknabe7397
    "This video is brought to you by Skill, Share. Thanks to SkillShare you can [learn all of these cool things] which will be useless by 2040 according to MIT"
  • @newfacethom
    MIT couldn’t even predict that their janitor was a genius, so my confidence is pretty minimal.
  • @robertbricker
    Just stumbled on this today - thanks for an interesting video. I used to do systems dynamics programming back in the 1980s-90s (I'm that old!) using a program called LISP, and we would do Monte-Carlo type repetitions (changing the input paremeters slightly many times, either to simulate some statistical distribution or on a planned theoretical basis) just like this study did (which I have NOT read or studied). Most people probably aren’t familiar with SD but it’s fairly easy to explain – think of a diagram with some variables in it, with lines with arrows following from one to another, where every variable has things it influences and things that are influencing it. There are a few things worth considering. First - obviously - is the model itself, barring some kind of external unmodeled shock, like a nuclear war. Also, the variables included, and how to measure them, as well as each one’s SD relationship with other variables (for example population, which is (relatively) fairly simple - how is it defined (including age demographics, gender distribution, health, education, etc?), how those are measured (people living, healthy people living, some statistical distribution of them, etc?), and what other measured variables are influenced by each, as well as what variables each influences (years of productive work, innovative capabilities, urban versus rural living, and so forth). Well, it can get very complicated and the theoretical SD models that preceed the programming often have mini-models embedded inside them. Sadly, SD models inevitably wind out to some steady state-stasis or go wildly out of control, both of which are outcomes are intuitively not very likely – you just have to follow the models out far enough to see this (apparently beyond 2040 for this one). The apex of SD modeling popularity was in the 1980s when we imagined that we were smart enough to capture enough variables and their relationships to actually understand how things would go. Time has largely shown that not to be the case. SD models are interesting, but probably mainly not for predicting how things will turn out but in thinking about the form of the model and – as we learn and observe – refining the model over time in understanding how things affect one-another. It’s VERY rare for a systems dynamics model to be able to make good predictions about the ‘future’ (although as I say I don’t know this one specifically.) Perhaps modern society WILL collapse in 2040, but if it does, I suspect it will be for reasons aside from those of this SD model.
  • It's called greed and corruption issues!! Soon the whole world will feel the down fall caused by the same thing!!
  • Never let anyone make a decision if they won't personally suffer for being wrong.
  • @helenoliver4838
    A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k.
  • “When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Kentucky, because everything there happens 20 years after it happens anywhere else.” — Mark Twain
  • @faethe000
    My experience is that there's never been a group of science types as bad at prediction as economists.
  • @polliec8443
    Here is the scary part that isnt talked about. When people refer to past civilizations collapsing, they are refering to a small part of the world, that is relatively isolated from other civilizations. Islotation meaning that they dont rely on other civilizations and empires to survive, and vice versa. Nowadays, when we talk about civilization collapsing, we are referring to a huge portion of the world collapsing, something that we have never seen before.