Why was Biden's win calculated to be ONE IN A QUADRILLION?

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Published 2020-12-18
This is Part III out of 'one with a quadrillion zeros' parts.

Give the gift of Stand-up Maths this Christmas:
www.patreon.com/standupmaths
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Part I: "Why do Biden's votes not follow Benford's Law?"
   • Why do Biden's votes not follow Benfo...  

Part II: "Do these scatter plots reveal fraudulent vote-switching in Michigan?"
   • Do these scatter plots reveal fraudul...  

Here is the Supreme Court filing from the State of Texas:
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/162953/20…

Declaration of Charles J. Cicchetti, Ph.D. is in the appendix of this document, starting on page 20.
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/163048/20…

Behold my declaration.
www.dropbox.com/s/337h06gx5t6tjte/Declaration%20of…

Here is the spreadsheet where I checked the combinations of states won by Democrats.
www.dropbox.com/s/d1sat2bjb1ts9n3/combinations-of-…

CORRECTIONS
- At 01:51 I accidentally said “Senate” when I meant “Congress”. But on-screen it says “House Republicans” so I think it still makes sense despite my mis-speak.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!

Thanks to my Patreons who mean I can keep throwing time and effort at videos about this election. And don't worry, I am a prudent spender of your money: that judge's robe was hired not purchased outright. But I do now own the wig.
www.patreon.com/standupmaths

As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing.
www.janestreet.com/

Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson

MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: standupmaths.com/
US book: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-…
UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-…

All Comments (21)
  • @standupmaths
    I go to all the effort to get “attorneys general” right and then I absentmindedly say “Senate” when I mean “Congress”. Yes I know the difference! Support me on Patreon and I’ll take a US Government quiz as punishment. www.patreon.com/standupmaths
  • Gentle PSA: Half of all statistics majors graduated in the bottom half of their class.
  • @zinc_magnesium
    The mail in votes have a blue shift because they're moving towards you
  • @bcubed72
    Reminds me of the story of a man, who is terrified of flying, lest there a bomb on the plane. So, he goes to his therapist. "You realize, the odds of a bomb being on any plane is 1,000,000:1 against?" "Don't care. It's still too scary." [Reaches under desk] "Okay, take this bomb on the plane with you. Because the odds of TWO bombs being on the plane are 1,000,000,000,000:1 against!"
  • @Asukol
    I lost it at 2:40 when Kelly Mcenany said “he used Z-SCORES and STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEDIAN” as if they’re some kind of ultra-complex supercomputer algorithms and not a word salad of high school statistics terms.
  • @leophoenixmusic
    Every time Matt says, “I’m not doing another one”, the probability that he does another one increases by more than 1 in a quadrillion
  • @number_8903
    Of course the math was wrong, nobody can be luckier than dream
  • @volbla
    "If people voted the same as they did the last election we'd get the same result." Mind: blown
  • Anyone else scared by the fact that the guy certifying this paper was supposedly an expert witness on hundreds of court cases?
  • @AtomicShrimp
    There's only one Matt Parker out of 7.5 billion humans on Earth, and this video is only one out of 4.5 billion videos on YouTube, so when (for some reason) we combine those numbers, it means the chances of this video just happening to debunk the stats in question are waaaaay smaller than 1 in a quadrillion. Ha! Checkmate maths nerds!
  • @chrisose
    This number was calculated using a little know formula from astrophysics known as the "Out of Uranus" equation.
  • @RichConnerGMN
    trump: don't do mail-in votes biden: mail-in votes are okay (biden gets more mail-in votes than trump) trump: why does biden have so many mail-in votes????
  • @FalconEye2015
    Fun Fact: Dream is more likely to win the presidency than to have his speedrun world record.
  • @ccppurcell
    If it literally says "more than one in a quadrillion" and not "one in more than a quadrillion" then technically...
  • @patty4349
    Several elections ago a friend told me that it was "statistically impossible" for everyone in a single precinct in Philidelphia to have voted for the same candidate. I tried to explain that statistics like that are based on random events and voting is not random, it is a choice. People living in a specific area might all agree on which candidate they prefer.
  • “1 x Donald Trump” Implies there’s more than 1 Donald Trump which is terrifying
  • @patrink12
    "I hope America is watching here. These are real numbers" He's technically correct. They aren't complex numbers.
  • @ajrothBU09
    This is how I’m going to respond to people who ask “why do I even need to learn math, I’m never going to use this”. You need to learn it so you don’t fall for idiotic arguments that don’t flesh out the actual data
  • @coolguyflex
    There are far more people in the world who know how to do a statistical test than those who know how to interpret the results.