CPI data: Is the economy headed for disinflation or stagflation?
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Published 2024-05-15
EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco and Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir join The Morning Brief to discuss the CPI data and the impact it may have on the overall market.
Daco suggests that a disinflation trend is picking up: "I think this recent retail sales report, while not alarming, does show that consumers are exercising a little bit more scrutiny. That's generally disinflationary. I think that disinflation momentum will continue or probably hit an inflation plateau over the summer and into the fall, but nonetheless, the underlying disinflationary forces are still very much in play."
Tchir claims that this report may signal the economy's entrance into "stagflation" territory: "The only last wrench to throw into this whole equation is you are starting to see some commodity inflation. Everyone's talking about copper (HG=F) and things like that. Do you start running into this risk of stagflation? It's not my base case. And I would have completely dismissed it about a month ago. I don't think we can dismiss it anymore, especially after we added some new tariffs yesterday. "
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All Comments (9)
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So lately in the last few months I am noticing the word "prints" a lot. Buzz word
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.1 % ? that is less than the margin of error lol
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Dude what are you talking about. Unless we go pack to pre 2020 prices, then weβre still in an inflationary period. Quit ignoring the problem π€¦π»ββοΈπ€¦π»ββοΈπ€¦π»ββοΈπ€¦π»ββοΈ
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Not in the next year or two....only if there is a unlikely. major recession
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Never
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Bonds are going down. Bonds down Market up that shows the economy is starting to right it self. People need to take a vacation due to the strong dollar against the EU. Stay alive till December 2025π
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Linearized Growth πΉ.
