The Rarest Item in TF2

152,416
0
Published 2022-11-16
Source information and caveats below!
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

Twitter: twitter.com/Zesty_Jesus
Twitch: www.twitch.tv/zesty_jesus
Discord (first 5 only): discord.gg/V3PpfyS8

2nd Channel:    / @zestyalt  

Support me on Patreon: www.patreon.com/zesty_jesus
My TF2 Server: zestyjesus.com/

Thumbnai Bnnuy by JauntyWeb:
twitter.com/JauntywebAU

Music:
Stardust Speedway Zone Act 1 - Sonic Mania [OST]
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Mischievous Step
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Lemonade Diary
Pink Guy - Fried Noodles [DVNZXL Remix]

Sources and Caveats
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

Certain types of items were omitted from consideration, specifically glitched items, promotional items, and gifts from Valve. Quantifying the statistical probability of occurrence for these items is not possible, for obvious reasons (i.e. a gift is a gift).

Australium Drop Spreadsheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dJWmNnptCy3BZClNi4…

Article on TF2's unusual drop rate:
tf2finance.com/rate/

Item Counts, Item Grade Abundance, Stat-Clock Abundance:
TF2tools.net

TF2 Skin Sticker and Pattern Information:
steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=591…

CSGO's case odds:
www.pcgamesn.com/counter-strike-global-offensive/c…
www.csgo.com.cn/news/gamebroad/20170911/206155.sht…

By law, Chinese companies must publicly display the results of all lottery results (including case openings):
www.csgo.com.cn/hd/1707/lotteryrecords/index.html

Given the abysmal state of item servers, previous versions of the TF2tools webpages were accessed via the Wayback machine:
web.archive.org/web/20160604151026/http://www.tf2t…

Item grade abundances change with the gradual increase in the number of trade-ups performed. As time goes on, lower grade items are exchanged for higher grade items (hence elite grades going from 0.8% to 1% over the course of about a year, reflecting item consumption and generation, not a change in case odds).

Wear abundance changes are negligible over the lifespan of TF2 skins, unimpacted by trade-ups given the differing nature from CSGO trade-ups.

Note again that the odds shown in the Steam guide are not official, and appear to be largely derived from guesswork or first-order estimates.

All Comments (21)
  • @MegaJani
    Oh boy, I can't wait to experience the inevitable heat death of the universe while tirelessly unboxing crates
  • @bayoyo5938
    Still not as rare as getting a 10/10 workshop cosmetic
  • @ZestyJesus
    I really should make a Skins 101 video. Seems like quite a few people still don't know the difference between decorated weapons and warpaints.
  • Imagine some dude just unboxes that rifle in the next week or something- Update: It has been about two weeks and I have not heard anything about someone unboxing this rifle, so-
  • @fawful7457
    Every day, Zesty just sounds like he is 1 funny hat away from killing himself.
  • If somehow zesty reads this, thanks you for putting out such quality content on my fav game for years and making my day each time a vid comes out <3
  • @Pretko
    Then imagine a valve employee just casually creating that warpaint just to fuck with us
  • I love how Zesty adds more YTP style edits, it's like we are watching his decent into madness in real time with each video.
  • @HammMann
    At this point, the glitchy stuttering effect has pretty much become Zesty's catchphrase.
  • @BorntoOrnn
    First of all, what a great video, I was aware the Golden Frying Pan wasn't the rarest item in the game but I wasn't aware of how rare we were gonna get. Secondly, my brain would have died trying to do all the math you had to do to make this video so, again good job. Finally, I love the editing, specifically how you censor swears by using the same technique as YTPs, having the word reverse itself midway. All in all, good shihs.
  • I love the irony of the rarest known item of it's kind being known as the "misfortunate" medigun 4:13
  • The fact that Battle Scarred is the rarest skin quality really surprised me, and further surprising is that the odds are skewed into being Not Too Bad™️ in general, with Field Tested and Minimal Wear being most and second most common, respectively I mean I already had a gut feeling it wasn't an even 20% split for them all, but I really expected Battle Scarred and Well Worn to be most frequent because...well, that'd just kinda be expected from a profit perspective Almost nobody would willingly want the worst weapon qualities, barring skins that have unique deteriorations with wear or, of course, the rarity factor poised in this video, but most would prefer the skins to be perfectly clean or at least close as can be to it, ergo being more likely to get scratched up trash would push consumers to buying more War Paint cases and, by extension, keys
  • @MrJoeyWheeler
    This just sounds like a challenge. Sure, you need 521 billion years if you open a box per second... BUT... what if you had lots of people opening them simultaneously?
  • @mrkrabs4976
    A few days before this vid I decided to unbox a couple of crates from the Halloween season because why not, and I got a Purple Energy Bombard Brigadier out of the blue. Turned a random $5 into probably a $100. Don't gamble kids :)
  • @t111ran3
    8:23 If I open one case per second, the minimum time required to maybe get this item is ONE SECOND There's a chance that it'll drop after the first unboxing
  • If we want a good example on how ridiculous these odds are to statistically the rarest item in TF2, it would pretty much be around the same odds of you finding the same pattern Spinda in Pokemon
  • Phenomenal editing! Using a mixed version of Pink Guy's Fried Noodles hit me right in the feels and was probably the most appropriate song to cap off a video about one in quintillion odds.
  • @Smojo10
    Another great informative video! Keep up the work
  • @black97_0
    "If unboxing is sure to result in pain and suffering, then you mustn't unbox!" Zesty Jesus said that And I say he knows a little bit more about unboxing than you do pall, because he invented it! And then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then he used his fight money to buy two of every unusuals on the market And then he is horded them in his backpack And then he deleted every single one And from that day forward every time a bunch of unusuals are in one place it's called a mistake! Unless it's a trade server!