A Recession is Coming | Two reasons why I'm still buying stocks
78,025
Published 2022-07-04
1) A ≠ B
The stock market is one of - if not the - most complex system we know. The number of variables that influence stock prices is near-infinite. And any patterns we observe, or opportunities we see to predict what might happen, are short-lived and eroded by the activities of other investors.
If a new event "A" occurred, and it looked like it was going to cause "B", the market would move within minutes to bake this into stock prices. This brings me nicely to reason number 2:
2) It's forward-looking
The stock market is constantly weighing the odds and potential outcomes of what might happen in the future. So all the risks you read in the newspaper will already be baked into stock prices. Does the market get it right all the time, no, does it get it right more than you? Yes.
You can either buy into that collective intelligence, and trust the market, or you can pit your wits against it.
👉🏻 Looking for help with Financial Planning?
I am a Chartered Wealth Manager and Partner in a financial planning practice based in the UK. If you would like to find out more about working with us, please follow this link: go.novawm.com/getintouch
DISCLAIMER:
This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - James is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a regulated advisor if you require assistance (while James does run a financial planning business, he does not provide advice through this Youtube Channel, which is not affiliated with his employer).
0:00 A recession is coming
1:22 Reason 1
5:54 Reason 2
9:06 In the context of today's environment
11:40 Take aways
James Shack™ property of James Shackell
Copyright © James Shackell 2022. All rights reserved.
The author asserts their moral right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the author of this channel and any video published on i
All Comments (21)
-
Focus on what you can control:
Diversification
Risk
Cashflow
And then... don't look. -
Another exceptional video. You've got a very rare knack of being able to explain complex ideas in an engaging and easy-to-understand manner. 👍
-
Honestly James, your videos are fantastic and have completely changed my attitude to my finances. Thank you!
-
You have a truly fantastic way of explaining complex financial issues. Long may this continue. Thank you.
-
im glad you're back James. congratulations on your wedding and always thankful for your great insights!
-
One of your best videos yet, thank you James. Really insightful and brilliantly explained.
-
great advice as always, certainly helps me to take a balanced view, and "Don't Look" is genius!
-
Great analogy - explained in simple terms without talking down to the viewer. 👏👏
-
1:11 If one pulls down the rope, many things can happen:
1. the rope may break
2. the red pulley may fall down
3. the ceiling may collapse
4. the rope may stretch
5. the puller may be not strong enough to pull the weight up or even hold it
We are used to safe systems, but reality is not so one-dimensional to claim that X = Y. 🤷♂ -
Meteorology, Physics of motor racing, economics, psychology, mathematical game theory.....MATE! James, you're putting in the work my good man! Love it!
-
Thank you for these great videos James 🙏
-
Your scripting is impeccable!! I hope you know that you are very good at this mate, awesome video.
Welcome back and congrats on your wedding. -
Great video James as always! And congrats on your wedding
-
Great video! One thing to nitpick: correlation does imply a possible causal relationship but does not guarantee it.
But you know this, just clarifying as it is often misunderstood. -
Welcome back good sir, another great video with well reasoned and sound logic.
-
I've subscribed... Great content. Thank you
Keep up the good work 👍 -
Cool, Calm, Collected and Rational as ever James, THANK YOU!
-
Thanks again for your great insights. Your enthusiasm and knowledgeable content are always worth my time.
-
What a great, well balanced video! Well done!
-
Excellent video James, you really explained this well. Keep up the great work 👍
