Elon Musk explains how stock markets predict the future
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Published 2022-07-18
There is evidence that suggests markets are inefficient at times, but research also shows that investors are unable to profit from them consistently.
So what does this mean for us?
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0:00 Predicting the future
1:05 Musk vs Twitter
4:46 Activision
6:06 Efficient Markets Theory
7:55 Critics of EMH - Behavioural Finance
9:03 Tests of Market Efficiency
11:00 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN (for me?)
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All Comments (21)
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This is a hard one to get your head around, but when you do, it will totally change your approach to investing.
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This is like revision for my financial management ACA exam 😂
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I've watched Professor Eugene Fama talking about markets eficiency. It was a fascinating mind bender. You Sir explained this concept much much easier.Thank you and bravo.
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Been buying as much as possible in this dip. Buy low, sell high…always
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Hi James, this was a pretty impressive video, especially with respect to the clear distillation of what can be a quite technical literature on economics and finance.
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Thanks for another of your great vids, James 👍
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Great work - one of the best explanations I have seen on efficient market hypothesis and how it applies to everyday investors. Clearly, efficient prices rely on active investors trying to exploit the inefficiencies, otherwise market wouldn’t be efficient. So the big guys do a valuable job in that regard, even if they can’t beat the market as a group (by definition). One point you didn’t mention was about the skewness of returns - in the twitter example to upside vs downside risks were not so exciting and fairly balanced, whereas for a value stock that you believe is ignored and undervalued, the upside may be much higher than downside, even if it’s a 50/50 on what happens. I guess that’s part of the independent risk of the value factor.
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Seems straight forward to me; the current price reflects both the now and an estimate for the future price which is why investing is a life time journey, is my own notion about such things.
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It really worked for me after I look and try some tutorials, yours is the one that worked. Owe you a lot.
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Another great video. Lots more to the markets which go against market efficiency. We have seen how much social media and fashion stocks can be impacted (Twitter, Tesla, Gamestop) from a comment or two and you can see in your example how Twitter moved a LOT over the few days of Elon's announcement and didn't really settle (even though you put a line to at a point to show the %!). Government decisions can impact certain sectors (defence, health). Not all information is particular public (private equity). People also have different beliefs and so will not want to invest in certain sectors, which can surely also lead to market inefficiency as they are being excluded based on non-monetary factors, and vice-versa.
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Phenomenal content that is free. Many thanks James
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how about the value investing?
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James could you do a review of best etfs and index funds currently available to invest in via Vanguard or Invest Engine. I'm interested in international regions excluding USA which I already own
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Love it. Great insights into into what we need to accept
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Hi James, great video as always! I don't suppose you could do a video explaining the electric car tax trap that the telegraph have written an article about on the 23/07/2022? My dad has a defined benefit pension and is concerned he could loose out on £10's thousands of pounds. Might be a good opportunity to raise awareness of this issue. Thanks in advance
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Great video - very rational analysis! I am reading the random walk book by Burton Malkiel at the moment and I am thoroughly enjoying it.
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Wow dude. This video is fire! Good job. Very interesting.
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Great vid. Thanks
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Great video as always James, you ought to have a lot more subscribers.
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Your videos are good in dark setting so that focus is on content