Former fusion scientist on why we won't have fusion power by 2040

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Publicado 2021-09-10
I refute some very optimistic claims about fusion power and discuss some of the challenges in making this long-sought after technology a reality.

Contents:
00:00 - Introduction
00:37 - Logistics
01:08 - Physics challenges
10:48 - Neutrons
14:18 - Good news
15:25 - Wrap-up

References
[1] www.powermag.com/fusion-energy-is-coming-and-maybe…
[2] ccfe.ukaea.uk/research/step/
[3] www.tokamakenergy.co.uk/
Version from 21 April 2021 at:
[4] web.archive.org/web/20210421143503/https://www.tok…
[5] techcrunch.com/2021/04/08/claiming-a-landmark-in-f…
[6] firstlightfusion.com/media-archive/first-light-fus…
[7] www.universetoday.com/115411/fusion-energy-always-…
[8]    • Lockheed Martin: Compact Fusion Resea...  
[9] Frankfurt Airport Timelapse by TheBlueMaxxx
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timelapse_Frankfur…
[10] Welcome to Planet ITER: a technical tour of the worksite by iterorganization
   • Welcome to Planet ITER: a technical t...  
[11] Periodic Table by László Németh
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Periodic_table_sim…
[12] Sun SparcStation 10 with 20" CRT by Thomas Kaiser
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sun_SparcStation_1…
[13] Устройство осциллографической ЭЛТ by Д.Ильин
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Устройство_осцилло…
[14] Taylor Wilson’s Nuke Site www.sciradioactive.com/fusiongallery
[15] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Wilson
[16] science.nasa.gov/ems/13_radiationbudget
[17] Red Apple by Abhijit Tembhekar
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Red_Apple.jpg
[18] ITER Cryopump www.iter.org/newsline/-/2721
[19] tae.com/2020/01/06/the-future-looks-bright/
[20] www.tokamakenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06…
[21] J. Jacquinot and the JET team “Deuterium-tritium operation in magnetic confinement experiments: results and underlying physics”, Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 41, A13 (1999).
[22] lasers.llnl.gov/news/nif-experiment-puts-researche…
[23] lasers.llnl.gov/about/faqs
[24] J. E. Menard et al. “Fusion nuclear science facilities and pilot plants based on the spherical tokamak”, Nuclear Fusion 56, 106023 (2016).
[25] 2016 NSTX-U is operational by PPPL Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory
www.flickr.com/photos/pppl/25448143876/in/album-72…
[26] Commonwealth Fusion Systems website
cfs.energy/technology

Todos los comentarios (21)
  • @drmodestoesq
    Someone once said that physics is math constrained by the limits of reality. And that engineering is physics constrained by the limits of money.
  • Wow. A guy who has a reasoned attitude towards fusion AND cites sources. I think you're my hero. :)
  • Has anyone considered harnessing the energy produced by the power of friendship?
  • @fujatv503
    Improbable Matter: "If there is enough interest I will make a follow-up video..." Youtube algorithm: "you are now a fusion-power youtube channel, bitch."
  • @garycooper9319
    Great video:: I remember when I was a young electrical engineering student in the 1950s in the UK when I read an article about a fusion machine which I think was called ‘Zita’ that was supposed to have achieved fusion and was predicted that this would eventually be able to supply the world with unlimited energy. Later it was decided that the machine had not achieved fusion but that within 10 or 20 years of development it would. I am now 85 years old and i am still waiting.
  • @brianbutton6346
    I was not expecting the goat on a treadmill. Delighted you included it.
  • @DemonetisedZone
    This is a great YouTube video Taking away the hype and leaving the hard nosed reality of wtf is actually happening Thank you my friend, i have actually learned something 👍
  • Thumbnail implies that OP is the reason we won't have fusion power. Someone should stop him.
  • @CrniWuk
    "You will be lucky to build an airport in 9 years" This guy knows Berlin!
  • It is interesting to see you mention ITER in a positive light. I was under the impression the ITER project was mostly a "show off" nuclear fusion reactor using a bunch of untested, experimental technology and approaches, but without any intent to achieve real fusion breakthrough, the real purpose would be to test other technologies. Glad to know there are people actually commiting to the original view and what was written on the paper.
  • thanks for a well delivered and concise explanation of the basic road blocks.
  • @Narokkurai
    Actual Fusion Researcher: The problems facing fusion power are real and significant. I see no current technology that can solve these problems, nor can I reasonably predict when such technology will be developed, if ever. Commenters: But have you tried just like... THINKING HARDER???
  • @danapeck5382
    Hugh Loweth once quipped over lunch, "There's probably a reason the closest functioning fusion system is 98 million miles away." Classic Loweth.
  • Explained very well and understandable. Thank you for this good video
  • @idcashflow
    thank u so much for your explanation, wonderful.
  • @keysersoze3987
    I worked at Princeton Plasma Physics Lab (PPPL) for 32 years leaving in 2011. When I started in 1979, they said "We'll have fusion commercially in 20 years"! We did achieve fusion with a D T reaction in 1996 and we did produce 14 MeV neutrons. It was a lot of fun working there!
  • @MassMoment
    As a mechanical engineer, I want to thank you for pointing out how efficiencies play into this struggle; they are rarely discussed. Nevertheless, I feel that the hype generated by small gains is still important. The excitement attracts funding for further research, which is needed for many years to come.
  • @Ergzay
    Important note about the graphs around 8:40 is that the figure assumes classical low temperature superconductors with significantly reduced magnetic fields than are available in modern high temperature superconductors. That GREATLY reduces the major radius required and so changes the graph significantly.
  • @boruta1034
    This video was very useful to understand recent breakthrough.